美国生猪现货上涨
Week to week cash US hogs 53 -54% lean, increased from 62.51₵ to 65₵. A step in the right direction. May Lean Hogs were up 3.28(71.950), higher and we expect relentless price increases week upon week as market numbers decline along with hog weights. We expect summer lean hogs to reach near 2013 levels in the mid to high 90s.
美国53-54%瘦肉商品猪现货价格从上周的62.51美分上涨至65美分。朝正确的方向前进了一步。5月的瘦肉猪价格上涨3.28美分(71.950美分)，我们预计随着出栏数量及生猪体重的下降，未来几周将出现价格的持续上涨。我们预计，夏季的瘦肉猪价格将达到2013年的水平，在95~100美分左右。
We note the strength of the cash early wean market which the USDA estimated was $37.14 last week. Early weans purchased now will be marketed at the end of October to the first part of November. A time frame of seasonally high market numbers. We observe that the price of $37.14 is strong relative to the dire warnings made by the “Chicken Little” Economists relative to barn and packer space. The point is, there are buyers and they are paying well enough. Obviously cash early wean buyers have space for pigs. It appears the system might be getting full but is not overwhelmed. Cash early weans holding value reflects there is space for pigs.
我们注意到，美国农业部上周估计的早期断奶猪现货价格为37.14美元。现在采购的早期断奶猪将在 10月底至11月初出栏。这个时间段的出栏数将出现季节性高峰。我们发现，相对地“胆小的”经济学家的悲观警告以及猪舍及屠宰厂空间，37.14美元的价格相对不错。问题在于，存在买家而且他们的出价足够高。显然，早期断奶猪现货的买家们有饲养空间。似乎整个系统将会满负荷，但仍然可以承受。早期断奶猪现货的价值反映了猪的饲养空间情况。
玉米
The US corn crop appears to be being planted at a normal pace. The US National Cash Corn Index was $3.46 a bushel last Friday. Corn North Dakota, Minnesota was $2.95 a bushel. Corn futures are not gaining any traction with July corn down 17₵ a bushel last week closing at $3.69. We expect if weather allows, the US grain farmer bouyed by record profits and high land values will plant every possible acre into corn, soybeans, wheat, etc. Weather will factor in crop prospects. Farmers do not practice supply – management to support prices. Freedom to farm is alive and well.
美国的玉米似乎正在以正常的速度种植。上周五，美国的全国玉米现货指数为3.46美元/蒲式耳。北达科塔州及明尼苏达州的玉米为每蒲式耳2.95美元。玉米期货价格没有任何上涨，7月的玉米下跌17美分，上周收盘于3.69 美元/蒲式耳。我们预计如果天气允许，美国粮农受创记录的利润和高土地价值的影响，将尽可能在每一寸土地上种植玉米、 大豆和小麦等。天气将影响作物的收成。农民不会进行供应管理来支撑价格。农场的自由仍在起作用。
禽流感
The H5N2 bird flu virus spread further last week with Sonstegard Foods egg layer complex in Iowa of 5.2 million hens found positive then liquidated. Since the initial break, the USDA has found the virus in 13 States and about 7.5 million turkeys and chickens have been eliminated. If the disease continues to spread and especially if it were to get in poultry breeding flocks, the multiple effect to the US poultry production could be devastating.
上周H5N2禽流感病毒进一步传播，Sonstegard食品在艾奥瓦州的蛋鸡场有520万只母鸡检出阳性并进行淘汰。首例爆发之后，美国农业部在13个州发现了这种病毒并扑杀了约750万只火鸡和鸡。如果这一疾病继续蔓延，特别是如果影响到种禽场，对美国家禽生产的多重影响将是毁灭性的。
In the swine industry PED caused problems last year, but the economic effect was somewhat muted compared to the Armegedon – possibility of Avian Flu. We can only imagine how a poultry producer is sleeping (or not) with this scourge in the country.
去年养猪业受到了猪流行性腹泻引发的问题，经济影响在某种程度是可以与世界末日相比。禽流感可能也是一样。我们只能想象，家禽生产者正在如何与这一国家灾害共眠。
韩国
Its good to be a hog producer in Korea. Last week we visited with Korean producers. Market hogs there are bringing about $450 per head. Yes they import all their feed and yes they have a production base with many disease challenges. Still making more than $200 per head when the dust settles isn’t hard to take. South Korea is a big market for Genesus with over 50% of all breeding stock imported coming from Genesus. The Korean market wants Purebred Registered Durocs, Yorkshires, and Landrace and Genesus with the largest privately owned high health purebred registered herd in the world (registration 2014 of 104,000). Through excellent results we have come to dominate this market. When producers are making over $200 per head as they are in Korea, they have the money to choose and buy the best genetics in the world. Mongrel genetics just don’t win the day when people have the capital to push for top results.
韩国的养猪生产者很幸福。我们上周接待了韩国的生产者。他们每头商品猪可以卖450美元。是的，他们的饲料全部进口而且生产基地受到了许多疾病的挑战。这些问题并不难解决，他们仍可以赚取超过每头200美元的利润。韩国是加裕的大市场，超过50%的种猪进口自加裕。韩国市场喜欢纯种的注册杜洛克、大白和长白猪。加裕拥有全球最大的私有高健康纯种注册猪群(2014年注册104,000头)。通过优异的成绩，我们在这一市场占据绝对份额。韩国的生产者们每头猪赚200美元，他们有钱可以选择并购买全球最好的种猪。当人们有资本来争取最好的成绩时，那些乱七八糟的种猪是不能赢得市场的。
总结
US Cash Hogs price continues to increase. US pork cut – outs end of last week were $69.94 per pound. Beef cut–outs $256.99. No way this spread won’t continue to narrow. The US has the same number of hogs this year as 2013 according to USDA March 1 Hogs and Pigs Report. We expect similar hog prices this summer with hogs reaching mid 90s.
美国生猪现货价格继续上涨。上周，美国猪肉切块的价格为69.94美分/lb。牛肉切块为256.99美元。这个差价不可能不继续缩小。根据美国农业部3月1日的生猪报告，美国的生猪数量与2013年一样。我们预计今年夏天的生猪价格将会类似，达到95美分左右。
